RISK ANALYSIS AND THE PROBABILITY OF COLLISION
In order to determine the probability of a collision, all risk factors which could lead to collision should be identified. Therefore, our paper analyses two different situations. The first one is the situation when the number of possible collisions can be estimated in case no avoiding manoeuvre is performed. In such a situation the consequences of the collision are influenced by the waterway and the involved ship’s dimensions. We intend to emphasise here that the probability of a collision is influenced by a large number of factors related not only to the waterway but also to the ships involved and the human factor. The second situation is based on the identification of all factors involved in collision which could be divided in two groups: factors which can be controlled and uncontrollable factors. Factors which cannot be controlled are those related to environment conditions. Factors which can reduce or increase collision consequences should be also identified. Further on, this paper emphasises the point that collision consequences should not be related only to structural deformations of the ship, human safety should be also included in the analysis as well as the effects on the environment, the economic impact, the shipping company’s reputation and the type and quantity of oil products spilled at sea as a result of the collision.
I , as main author, declare and undersign, that the paper is an original and common work of me and all subsequent authors. The paper as a whole or part of it has not been published or submitted to other Journal. The right to publish the accepted paper is transferred to and owned by “Annals of Constanta Maritime University” Journal.